[h=1]The NFL spoke, and we adjusted key fantasy projections[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Earlier this week, each of our 32 ESPN NFL Nation reporters released over/under predictions for one quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end on the team they cover. Of course, considering the lines were set based on the ESPN fantasy football projections (which I generate), I was interested to see both the picks and commentary.
Though all 128 responses provided useful information, several stood out. In fact, they stood out enough that I learned something new and tweaked our projections. Down below are the most interesting nuggets from the feature, as well as the adjustments I made.
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[h=2]Nation pick: Over 60 receptions for Cardinals RB David Johnson[/h]
Key quote: "The expectation is that Kliff Kingsbury will use Johnson as Bruce Arians used the running back in 2016, when he caught 80 passes for 879 yards."
New projection: 64 - Johnson has handled target shares of 16% and 19% during his past two full seasons. I bumped him up slightly from 16% to 17% (in 15 games).
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 33 total touchdowns for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers[/h]Key quote: "There's going to be an adjustment period for Rodgers in Matt LaFleur's offense, which, by the way, is going to be more run-heavy than any offense Rodgers has played in before with Green Bay."
New projection: 32 - Though the decrease in total touchdowns is only one, I also increased Green Bay's team rush rate, which cost Rodgers' pass attempts and, thus, yardage. It also cost Davante Adams some volume, which perhaps makes the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas more appealing than the Packers' top wide receiver.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 245 touches for Packers RB Aaron Jones[/h]Key quote: "Coach Matt LaFleur is quickly finding out why Jones hasn't broken out yet ... Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the preseason opener."
New projection: 241 - This decrease is minor, but as we just established, Packers reporter Rob Demovsky expects the Packers to run more than we initially anticipated. A lesser touch share for Jones combined with a more run-oriented Packers offense leaves him with a similar total number of projected touches. It'd be easier to make this number lower if he had better competition than Jamaal Williams and sixth-round rookie Dexter Jackson.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 606 receiving yards for Ravens TE Mark Andrews[/h]
Key quote: "Andrews is the most dangerous target in the Ravens' passing game, and he had instant chemistry with QB Lamar Jackson last season."
New projection: 651 - I was a bit cautious on Andrews early on because it seemed natural that 2018 first-round pick Hayden Hurst would take on a much larger role in his second season. Instead, it appears Andrews has convinced the team he's the real deal and will thus remain a major factor in the passing game. I'm still worried about Andrews' upside in Baltimore's run-first offense, but he should see enough volume to allow fringe TE1 numbers.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 32 receptions for Ravens RB Mark Ingram II[/h]Key quote: "Ingram will be utilized as a receiver in his first season in Baltimore. The Ravens want to give Lamar Jackson more high-percentage throws this season, and Ingram is a big factor in that."
New projection: 36 - Same as Andrews, I worry about total pass volume in this offense, but the likes of Kenneth Dixon and rookie Justice Hill don't appear to be threats to Ingram's workload on passing downs. This helps secure Ingram's place in the RB2 discussion.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 1,749 scrimmage yards for Jets RB Le'Veon Bell[/h]Key quote: "He won't get 406 touches, as he did in his last season for the Steelers in 2017. He won't be as efficient as he was in Pittsburgh because there will be a drop-off in his line play."
New projection: 1,661 - There has been a lot of chatter about a big receiving role for Ty Montgomery and a potentially huge season for slot receiver Jamison Crowder, which could cost Bell some targets. This dip is enough for me to move Bell behind David Johnson on my board, but 1,661 yards is still a huge number (it would've ranked fifth last season).
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 152 rushing attempts for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson[/h]Key quote: "Jackson will run as much as it takes for Baltimore to win. It's safe to say Jackson will average 10 rushing attempts per game."
New projection: 162 - Key word: "safe." I think Jackson's style of play means his chance of injury is higher than most, which needs to be a factor here, but I still gave him a slight boost.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 100 rushing attempts for Bills QB Josh Allen[/h]Key quote: "General manager Brandon Beane wants Allen to mimic Russell Wilson's 'keep defenses honest' running style. Wilson has carried the ball 100-plus times only twice in his career, so it's unlikely Allen will surpass that in his second season."
New projection: 96 - If Allen's passing efficiency isn't much improved, the second-year quarterback may need to run to keep Buffalo competitive. Nonetheless, the team's game plan suggests he could fall short of high expectations as a rusher.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 650 receiving yards for Bills WR John Brown[/h]Key quote: "Over. And not just by a little bit, either ... Brown could have a career season."
New projection: 682 - I bumped Brown up, but only a little bit. The fact is, he's a 29-year-old vertical threat who has yet to clear a 19% target share in his career. That's exactly where I have his 2019 share in the Bills' run-first offense.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 891 receiving yards for Bears WR Allen Robinson[/h]Key quote: "Robinson is finally healthy after battling injuries most of 2018. Trubisky and Robinson have a clear connection."
New projection: 950 - Robinson was Mitch Trubisky's clear No. 1 target last season and it appears he may be able to get his game to another level in his second season in Chicago.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 867 receiving yards for Cardinals WR Christian Kirk[/h]Key quote: "It's expected that Larry Fitzgerald will be Arizona's WR1 with Kirk being WR2, but with how much talent the Cardinals will have in the receiving room, it's hard to predict who'll have the next best season after Fitzgerald."
New projection: 820 - This quote should give pause to the idea that Kirk will be Arizona's No. 1 wide receiver this season. Soon-to-be 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald is still the main man.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 93 receptions for Eagles TE Zach Ertz[/h]Key quote: "He's sharing the field with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor and Dallas Goedert, who is considered a co-starting tight end."
New projection: 87 - It's going to be hard for Carson Wentz to keep everyone happy in this Eagles offense. Goedert seems to be the real deal.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 683 receiving yards for Saints TE Jared Cook[/h]
Key quote: "Cook thrived in a similar offense in Oakland last season. He's exactly the type of intermediate pass-catcher the Saints need, and he has looked great on the practice field." New projection: 734 - Is this Coby Fleener all over again? Saints reporter Mike Triplett doesn't think so. The Saints lack wide receiver depth, which certainly helps Cook's chances of generating consistent target volume.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 172 touches for Broncos RB Royce Freeman[/h]Key quote: "The Broncos will frustrate plenty of those playing fantasy football with their share-the-load philosophy in the run game, as they will certainly move backs in and out of games, but right now, Freeman projects to be the early-down back in the offense, and all of the backs (Freeman included) will be far more involved in the passing game in the team's new offensive scheme."
New projection: 189 - With Freeman going up to 189, Phillip Lindsay's projection dropped to 203. I still expect Lindsay to be the better fantasy option, but these two are closer in value than we anticipated.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 60 receptions for Lions RB Kerryon Johnson[/h]Key quote: "Quarterback Matthew Stafford has other receiving options and Detroit is going to likely monitor his touches, at least early. Add in that if Ty Johnson can emerge as a receiving back (he has the speed for it), that could take some chances away too."
New projection: 55 - I bumped this down a bit, but keep in mind that prior to suffering a season-ending injury, Johnson was on a 16-game pace for 51.2 receptions in 2018. And that was with Theo Riddick in the fold. With Riddick and his 61 receptions gone, Johnson has big upside as a pass-catcher.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 50 receptions for Patriots WR N'Keal Harry[/h]
Key quote: "Harry should see a lot of action, but betting on more than 50 catches seems risky until he consistently proves he can reliably catch the football."
New projection: 43 - I'm not a professional NFL scout, but "catching the football" feels like an important asset for a wide receiver. Harry seems destined for a slow start, but the opportunity to play a big role in a great offense remains.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 540 receiving yards for Broncos TE Noah Fant[/h]Key quote: "He hasn't looked comfortable getting acclimated in the offense and the team's running backs are going to be far more involved in the passing game."
New projection: 459 - This is your regular reminder that rookie tight ends - no matter the pedigree - are almost always bad fantasy options.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 162 touches for Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones[/h]Key quote: "I'd proceed with caution on Jones (he's still dropping screen passes on occasion) or any Bucs running back, for that matter."
New projection: 146 - It's seeming more and more like Jones isn't up to the task (at least not yet). Peyton Barber has minimal upside, but he's a candidate for more than 200 touches and thus a value at his late-round ADP.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 406 receiving yards for Raiders TE Darren Waller[/h]Key quote: "Jon Gruden's offense likes tight ends ... Waller is a physical specimen whose skill set more closely resembles that of a wideout ...This might be a risk, but it's one worth taking and one that will pay off handsomely, if Waller stays healthy."
New projection: 487 - I remain cautious about a 27-year-old with 16 career receptions and off-field concerns, but Waller continues to cement a significant role in Oakland. He's a TE2 target.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 11 starts for Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins[/h]Key quote: "With a coaching staff that needs to win now, they will first turn to veterans Colt McCoy and Case Keenum. Haskins might play if those two aren't getting it done and the team is out of playoff contention, but that wouldn't occur until perhaps the midway point or later."
New projection: 7 starts - Those of you in leagues that start two quarterbacks should take note.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over/under 676 receiving yards for Dolphins WR Albert Wilson[/h]Key quote: "The hope is Wilson will be ready by Week 1, but there's uncertainty on his health and whether he can be that game-changing player right away."
New projection: 638 - Wilson is a popular sleeper on a seemingly wide-open Miami depth chart, but the health concerns and emergence of undrafted rookie Preston Williams suggest we should be more cautious.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 51 receptions for Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki[/h]Key quote: "Physicality struggles could limit Gesicki to red zone and other situational reps, which could help his touchdown value, but it won't help his total receptions."
New projection: 45 - Gesicki turns 24 this fall, so it's starting to become a concern that the 2018 second-round pick doesn't seem to be making major strides.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Earlier this week, each of our 32 ESPN NFL Nation reporters released over/under predictions for one quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end on the team they cover. Of course, considering the lines were set based on the ESPN fantasy football projections (which I generate), I was interested to see both the picks and commentary.
Though all 128 responses provided useful information, several stood out. In fact, they stood out enough that I learned something new and tweaked our projections. Down below are the most interesting nuggets from the feature, as well as the adjustments I made.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 60 receptions for Cardinals RB David Johnson[/h]
Key quote: "The expectation is that Kliff Kingsbury will use Johnson as Bruce Arians used the running back in 2016, when he caught 80 passes for 879 yards."
New projection: 64 - Johnson has handled target shares of 16% and 19% during his past two full seasons. I bumped him up slightly from 16% to 17% (in 15 games).
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 33 total touchdowns for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers[/h]Key quote: "There's going to be an adjustment period for Rodgers in Matt LaFleur's offense, which, by the way, is going to be more run-heavy than any offense Rodgers has played in before with Green Bay."
New projection: 32 - Though the decrease in total touchdowns is only one, I also increased Green Bay's team rush rate, which cost Rodgers' pass attempts and, thus, yardage. It also cost Davante Adams some volume, which perhaps makes the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas more appealing than the Packers' top wide receiver.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 245 touches for Packers RB Aaron Jones[/h]Key quote: "Coach Matt LaFleur is quickly finding out why Jones hasn't broken out yet ... Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the preseason opener."
New projection: 241 - This decrease is minor, but as we just established, Packers reporter Rob Demovsky expects the Packers to run more than we initially anticipated. A lesser touch share for Jones combined with a more run-oriented Packers offense leaves him with a similar total number of projected touches. It'd be easier to make this number lower if he had better competition than Jamaal Williams and sixth-round rookie Dexter Jackson.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 606 receiving yards for Ravens TE Mark Andrews[/h]
Key quote: "Andrews is the most dangerous target in the Ravens' passing game, and he had instant chemistry with QB Lamar Jackson last season."
New projection: 651 - I was a bit cautious on Andrews early on because it seemed natural that 2018 first-round pick Hayden Hurst would take on a much larger role in his second season. Instead, it appears Andrews has convinced the team he's the real deal and will thus remain a major factor in the passing game. I'm still worried about Andrews' upside in Baltimore's run-first offense, but he should see enough volume to allow fringe TE1 numbers.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 32 receptions for Ravens RB Mark Ingram II[/h]Key quote: "Ingram will be utilized as a receiver in his first season in Baltimore. The Ravens want to give Lamar Jackson more high-percentage throws this season, and Ingram is a big factor in that."
New projection: 36 - Same as Andrews, I worry about total pass volume in this offense, but the likes of Kenneth Dixon and rookie Justice Hill don't appear to be threats to Ingram's workload on passing downs. This helps secure Ingram's place in the RB2 discussion.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 1,749 scrimmage yards for Jets RB Le'Veon Bell[/h]Key quote: "He won't get 406 touches, as he did in his last season for the Steelers in 2017. He won't be as efficient as he was in Pittsburgh because there will be a drop-off in his line play."
New projection: 1,661 - There has been a lot of chatter about a big receiving role for Ty Montgomery and a potentially huge season for slot receiver Jamison Crowder, which could cost Bell some targets. This dip is enough for me to move Bell behind David Johnson on my board, but 1,661 yards is still a huge number (it would've ranked fifth last season).
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 152 rushing attempts for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson[/h]Key quote: "Jackson will run as much as it takes for Baltimore to win. It's safe to say Jackson will average 10 rushing attempts per game."
New projection: 162 - Key word: "safe." I think Jackson's style of play means his chance of injury is higher than most, which needs to be a factor here, but I still gave him a slight boost.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 100 rushing attempts for Bills QB Josh Allen[/h]Key quote: "General manager Brandon Beane wants Allen to mimic Russell Wilson's 'keep defenses honest' running style. Wilson has carried the ball 100-plus times only twice in his career, so it's unlikely Allen will surpass that in his second season."
New projection: 96 - If Allen's passing efficiency isn't much improved, the second-year quarterback may need to run to keep Buffalo competitive. Nonetheless, the team's game plan suggests he could fall short of high expectations as a rusher.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 650 receiving yards for Bills WR John Brown[/h]Key quote: "Over. And not just by a little bit, either ... Brown could have a career season."
New projection: 682 - I bumped Brown up, but only a little bit. The fact is, he's a 29-year-old vertical threat who has yet to clear a 19% target share in his career. That's exactly where I have his 2019 share in the Bills' run-first offense.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 891 receiving yards for Bears WR Allen Robinson[/h]Key quote: "Robinson is finally healthy after battling injuries most of 2018. Trubisky and Robinson have a clear connection."
New projection: 950 - Robinson was Mitch Trubisky's clear No. 1 target last season and it appears he may be able to get his game to another level in his second season in Chicago.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 867 receiving yards for Cardinals WR Christian Kirk[/h]Key quote: "It's expected that Larry Fitzgerald will be Arizona's WR1 with Kirk being WR2, but with how much talent the Cardinals will have in the receiving room, it's hard to predict who'll have the next best season after Fitzgerald."
New projection: 820 - This quote should give pause to the idea that Kirk will be Arizona's No. 1 wide receiver this season. Soon-to-be 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald is still the main man.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 93 receptions for Eagles TE Zach Ertz[/h]Key quote: "He's sharing the field with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor and Dallas Goedert, who is considered a co-starting tight end."
New projection: 87 - It's going to be hard for Carson Wentz to keep everyone happy in this Eagles offense. Goedert seems to be the real deal.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 683 receiving yards for Saints TE Jared Cook[/h]
Key quote: "Cook thrived in a similar offense in Oakland last season. He's exactly the type of intermediate pass-catcher the Saints need, and he has looked great on the practice field." New projection: 734 - Is this Coby Fleener all over again? Saints reporter Mike Triplett doesn't think so. The Saints lack wide receiver depth, which certainly helps Cook's chances of generating consistent target volume.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 172 touches for Broncos RB Royce Freeman[/h]Key quote: "The Broncos will frustrate plenty of those playing fantasy football with their share-the-load philosophy in the run game, as they will certainly move backs in and out of games, but right now, Freeman projects to be the early-down back in the offense, and all of the backs (Freeman included) will be far more involved in the passing game in the team's new offensive scheme."
New projection: 189 - With Freeman going up to 189, Phillip Lindsay's projection dropped to 203. I still expect Lindsay to be the better fantasy option, but these two are closer in value than we anticipated.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 60 receptions for Lions RB Kerryon Johnson[/h]Key quote: "Quarterback Matthew Stafford has other receiving options and Detroit is going to likely monitor his touches, at least early. Add in that if Ty Johnson can emerge as a receiving back (he has the speed for it), that could take some chances away too."
New projection: 55 - I bumped this down a bit, but keep in mind that prior to suffering a season-ending injury, Johnson was on a 16-game pace for 51.2 receptions in 2018. And that was with Theo Riddick in the fold. With Riddick and his 61 receptions gone, Johnson has big upside as a pass-catcher.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 50 receptions for Patriots WR N'Keal Harry[/h]
Key quote: "Harry should see a lot of action, but betting on more than 50 catches seems risky until he consistently proves he can reliably catch the football."
New projection: 43 - I'm not a professional NFL scout, but "catching the football" feels like an important asset for a wide receiver. Harry seems destined for a slow start, but the opportunity to play a big role in a great offense remains.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 540 receiving yards for Broncos TE Noah Fant[/h]Key quote: "He hasn't looked comfortable getting acclimated in the offense and the team's running backs are going to be far more involved in the passing game."
New projection: 459 - This is your regular reminder that rookie tight ends - no matter the pedigree - are almost always bad fantasy options.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 162 touches for Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones[/h]Key quote: "I'd proceed with caution on Jones (he's still dropping screen passes on occasion) or any Bucs running back, for that matter."
New projection: 146 - It's seeming more and more like Jones isn't up to the task (at least not yet). Peyton Barber has minimal upside, but he's a candidate for more than 200 touches and thus a value at his late-round ADP.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over 406 receiving yards for Raiders TE Darren Waller[/h]Key quote: "Jon Gruden's offense likes tight ends ... Waller is a physical specimen whose skill set more closely resembles that of a wideout ...This might be a risk, but it's one worth taking and one that will pay off handsomely, if Waller stays healthy."
New projection: 487 - I remain cautious about a 27-year-old with 16 career receptions and off-field concerns, but Waller continues to cement a significant role in Oakland. He's a TE2 target.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 11 starts for Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins[/h]Key quote: "With a coaching staff that needs to win now, they will first turn to veterans Colt McCoy and Case Keenum. Haskins might play if those two aren't getting it done and the team is out of playoff contention, but that wouldn't occur until perhaps the midway point or later."
New projection: 7 starts - Those of you in leagues that start two quarterbacks should take note.
[h=2]Nation pick: Over/under 676 receiving yards for Dolphins WR Albert Wilson[/h]Key quote: "The hope is Wilson will be ready by Week 1, but there's uncertainty on his health and whether he can be that game-changing player right away."
New projection: 638 - Wilson is a popular sleeper on a seemingly wide-open Miami depth chart, but the health concerns and emergence of undrafted rookie Preston Williams suggest we should be more cautious.
[h=2]Nation pick: Under 51 receptions for Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki[/h]Key quote: "Physicality struggles could limit Gesicki to red zone and other situational reps, which could help his touchdown value, but it won't help his total receptions."
New projection: 45 - Gesicki turns 24 this fall, so it's starting to become a concern that the 2018 second-round pick doesn't seem to be making major strides.
